Reply to Vidar.........

Source:  Reply to Vidar.........    Tag:  vidar
I received a comment today on the post where I replied to some of the criticisms Steve had made on a blog post. Here’s the comment in full:

I am following 21 UK-systems with a 150 point bank (should be 200, but I took a higher risk). I am staking 1 point on homes, and 0,5 point on aways and draws:

6-21, 6-22, 7-21, 7-22, 8-21, 8-22
31-41, 31-42, 32-41, 32-42, 33-41, 33-42
D1-D6, D1-D7, D2-D6, D2-D7, D3-D6, D3-D7

I follow all the same systems as Steve do, plus 8 more. The difference in result is huge! So far my results are +10 pt. The lowest point early in the season was -100pt and the highest point was in early january with +50pt.

Have I chosen a better overall portfolio then Steve, or have I just been lucky with my choice of systems? What do you think Graeme?

Best regards,

NB - I have amended the numbers slightly in Vidar’s comment as he originally said 19 systems and 6 more than Steve. Should have been 21 systems and 8 more than Steve based on the systems quoted and the portfolio he follows.

I’m conscious the blog and the systems have been getting a fair bit of stick from people who have made losses this season. However, as the SBC award shows, all members can’t be losing 50% of their bank like Steve this season or I suspect I’d be getting even more criticism than that coming my way already.

As many people with the service are aware, I do spend a lot of time each summer pulling together portfolio sheets which highlight historical performance and drawdowns of chosen portfolios for subscribers (based on the systems they want to follow) and therefore, I do see a lot of different ways to play the bets. I also regularly receive emails from some subscribers with updates of how their TFA portfolio is going and others show comparisons to other services they follow (doesn’t look pretty this season admittedly for TFA!) but the point is, I do have a fair idea of how many people are doing.

I don’t feel it’s right to break that trust though and I never mention on the blog or in emails to subscribers how others are doing. I try my best to not discuss how I’m doing either as not sure I have much to gain by saying whether I’m winning or losing as people expect tipsters to always win every day and if I say I’m losing, I get people saying I’m hopeless and saying I should stop and if I say I’m winning and others are losing, I get accused of rubbing it in if not every other person is winning. I learnt in the first season to keep my thoughts to myself regarding my own betting!

Anyway, the comment from Vidar is the first comment on the blog this season from someone not in a horrible situation with their P&L. Vidar makes an interesting point that I thought was worth highlighting (and no, it’s not that he is in profit!).

As Steve knows, he’s following 13 UK systems this season. Hence, Vidar only follows 8 systems more than Steve. 

As Vidar says, he’s in profit for the season and as I know, Steve’s lost over 50% of his betting bank! How has this happened?

Well, it goes back to my original post regarding Steve’s systems and he’s been very, very unlucky I think. I saw it again last night but Steve had 1 draw bet, the systems had 5 draw bets. Steve backed the only loser and made a 1pt loss last night on draws. The draw systems made a 165% ROI last night across 44 bets, Steve’s ROI was -100%. That’s a big swing!

The additional 8 systems Vidar follows have enough profits to wipe out all of the losses by Steve and get Vidar in profit. As I said in my reply to Vidar, any sort of profit is great this season and although a 10pt profit isn’t what Vidar would have been hoping for this season when he set out (6.67% ROC), given how horrible this season has been, to make any profit is good going. Basically, if you can make a profit this season when the results are terrible, I expect you can do it in any season! Break-even is great this season!

I guess the question is as Vidar asks, has he been lucky or did he have a better portfolio than Steve? 

Before I answer this, one point I want to make again is that you don’t need to follow 21, 13 or even 10 systems this season to be in profit. I think I have shown that already by the portfolios I developed for the SBC forum. 6 of the 7 portfolios with 5-7 systems are in profit and have achieved an average of 23% ROC this season. Hence, you didn’t need 13 or 21 systems to be in profit. However, what you needed was a diversified set of bets and not be too reliant on a small number of bets to do well.

By following all combined systems including the draw systems, the only bets Vidar missed out were the Euro bets. Hence, he’s picked a good sample of bets from every UK algorithm and importantly, he’s not played TFA roulette by picking which combined systems to follow. He’s taken the full belts and braces approach and followed them all! Not my idea of following TFA but then again, who am I to argue when Vidar is in profit this season following TFA and I’m not!

Hence, Vidar removed the luck aspect by following all UK combined systems. No idea how long he spends placing TFA bets (will be as long as me!) but what he has done has protected himself from a season where the returns by backing the bets that appear on the most systems have done very poorly. Imagine if the returns this season had been in line with previous seasons, he’d be raking it in whilst Steve would be clawing his way back to break-even.

Therefore, I don’t think Vidar has been any luckier than Steve this season. He’s backed the same bets exactly that Steve has backed and all he’s done is add a few more systems and boom, he’s not in the mess Steve is in.

We’ve all learnt a lot this season and I put myself into this category too (as would Steve I suspect) and as I keep saying, none of this detracts from the fact that the UK systems have been shockingly bad this season. However, losing 50%+ of a betting bank at this stage of the season is not right and therefore, it could and should have been avoided. When the systems do bad as they have done this season, you can’t expect to make a profit. I appreciate that and I’ll hold my hands up and admit the systems have been poor this season. I honestly do think 50%+ losses should not be occurring though.

The interesting thing with Vidar’s portfolio I see is the fact he stakes 0.5pts on Draws (would have been based on these being unproven this season). Hence, he’s understaked the best performing bets in his portfolio. That’s about as unlucky as anything this season and yet, he’s in profit. I keep saying it but we make our own luck at this game. It’s not lucky that Vidar is in profit and if he had more luck, he would be in more profit I suspect.

To answer the question Vidar asks, I believe he has a better portfolio overall as this season has shown and I think Steve’s been unlucky with his system selection but if you do the first thing correctly (have a good portfolio), you can remove a great deal of the luck element out of this game. I said it in my original post but Steve was lucky in the first season and unlucky this season. With the returns these systems have, not sure we want to be relying on luck each season to make a profit………….